The Next Big Thing:

Stuff, can we live without it:

The surging cost of necessities has led to a national belt-tightening among consumers. Figures released on Monday showed that spending on food and gasoline is crowding out other purchases, leaving people with less to spend on furniture, clothing and electronics. Consequently, chains specializing in those goods are proving vulnerable.

(Michael Barbaro, The New York Times, 15 Apr 08)

Fuel costs and bad credit are impinging on the economy in ways most of us don't think about. When it comes to choosing between getting to work or buying yet another pair of sneakers, … well, just how many pairs of shoes does one person need after all?

In any event, a new wave of bankruptcies is upon the economy. This time the banks are unlikely to strong arm the congress into passing new legislation to prohibit or even cut down on them. They only do that when working class people want to file for bankruptcy because they can't control their spending habits.

When businesses file for bankruptcy, the banks will press congress for federal relief, drawing upon the taxpayers to bail them out. We'll be told that it's for the good of the economy. And maybe they're right. You and I, well, we're just worker ants and bees. It's the queen of the hive who passes along the building blocks for the future, isn't it?

Unexpected Consequences:

Biofuels seemed like an idea too good to be true, and it's proven to be so. Early critics pointed out that biofuels were no more environmentally friendly than oil or coal, but few of us thought about the possibility that they would lead to food riots and the toppling of governments. Last week, as The New York Times points out, Haiti's prime minister was dismissed, in part due to food riots.

The United States consumes about 25 percent of the world's energy. The idea that farmers could start selling their crops to energy hungry Americans caused the price of grain around the world to begin increasing dramatically. In the U. S., doubling the cost of food will make most of us grouse, but we can still get along, even if we have to give up buying an extra pair of sneakers. But for millions of people outside the U. S., doubling the cost of food means starvation or near starvation.

Speaking of Energy:

Oil prices reached a new record: $114 a barrel. Or put another way, it cost me 3 times as much to heat my home this year as it did twelve years ago when I moved in, even though I've reduced my energy consumption by more than 20 percent.

So just why are people like me upset with the state of the economy, and why is my outlook bleak? ("Gee, Jim, I can't imagine. So how about those McCain tax cuts for the wealthy? I'll bet a little trickle-down would look pretty good right now." Yeah, uh, I'm still waiting on the Reagan trickle-down effect. Have you seen it?)

Adding Fuel to the Fire:

Need any more evidence that the American health industry is out to get you? This afternoon's New York Times reports a new twist on the Vioxx/Merck episode (the drug was reportedly responsible for thousands of heart attacks). It appears that Merck was paying doctors to sign their names to reports that had been produced in house. That is, by signing their names to the reports, these doctors were asserting that they had conducted or in some been involved in the research when in fact their only involvement was to sign their names after the fact. It is now believed that the research never took place at all.

Why didn't government oversight catch this before? Well, we don't believe in government regulation. The market place will take care of such indiscretions by forcing these kinds of businesses out, right? After all, that's exactly what happened in the Merck case. ("Yeah, right, Jim, but not before a few thousand people had heart attacks and died!" Details! Details! At least we didn't have government interference in our business.)

The Great Man on Social Security: "I'm going to spend a lot of time on Social Security. I enjoy it. I enjoy taking on the issue. I guess, it's the mother in me." — George W. Bush, Washington, D. C., April 14, 2005. Just think how better off we'd all be if we allowed George to put our social security money into today's stock market. Maybe we could own a part of Baer Stearns and get bailed out!

NOTE: Today is tax day. It is also the 61st anniversary of the day Jackie Robinson played his first major league baseball game.

We Brought These Guys All the Way Back from Iraq To Say What?

General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker came back to Washington, D. C. to tell congress nothing's changed. (See The New York Times' story.)

NEWS FLASH! Did anybody really think we could bomb a whole culture into changing its ways when nothing had worked for thousands of years?

Truckers Are Slowing Down:

Well, some are. Others are parading around, demanding that state governments lower their already low fuel taxes. Four-dollar-a-gallon diesel fuel hurts. A few of these guys are starting to realize that driving the speed limit increases their fuel efficiency. The question that puzzles me has always been why on earth we are shipping so much in trucks any way? The rails are far cheaper, more environmentally sound, and use considerably less energy per pound of goods moved.

Note: Behind me on the TV, Condi Rice is reporting to the congress on the proposed free trade agreement with Columbia. Rumor has it that she hasn't been very busy with her Secretary of State duties of late. Instead she's been bustling about, trying to convince the powers that be within the Republican Party that she should be John McCain's running mate. Now there's a happy thought. To date, in addition to her sex and race, Secy. Rice is best known for not having any answers for congress, promising to deliver the answers to questions, and failing to deliver those promised answers. In other words, she is best known as the stone wall in the administration's relationship with congress.

The Story You Should Be Following:

While our attention is being focused on who will win in Iowa—whether one Republican candidate's religion is cuter than the other's, whether Operah can influence as many Democratic voters as Bill—the story you should be paying attention to is being covered by Clifford Krauss in today's New York Times: "Oil-Rich Nations Use More Energy, Cutting Exports." Here's a teaser:

“It is a very serious threat that a lot of major exporters that we count on today for international oil supply are no longer going to be net exporters any more in 5 to 10 years,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, an oil analyst at Rice University.

Krauss's story is filled with these sorts of tidbits that tend to make the average Sunday afternoon couch potato yawn, and they are just the sort of details that will govern our lives over the next fifty years.


Yes, Dear, Al Gore Did "Create" the Internet:

Writing in the technology section of today's New York Times, John Markoff illustrates how then senator Al Gore played a crucial role in the development of the Internet. No single person, we all realize, created the Internet; it was a product of what we are beginning to understand in terms of "swarm theory." (See the National Geographic article and the BusinessPundit.com article on Google.) What Gore did was to get out in front in leading government to become a partner in the development of the Internet. There is little doubt among many leading scientists and engineers that his part surpassed that of any other national politician at the time.


Zingers:

Once upon a time, The New York Times' Maureen Dowd was noted for nailing the politicians she lives among in Washington, D. C., but lately she's been a little lame. I mean, just how often and how many ways can you ridicule Georgie and his bunch when they do such a good job of it themselves.

Dowd's Op-Ed piece today, without being overtly cynical, does a good job of describing Romney's recent message to the evangelicals:

“J.F.K.’s speech was to reassure Americans that he wasn’t a religious fanatic,” Mr. Krakauer agreed. “Mitt’s was to tell evangelical Christians, ‘I’m a religious fanatic just like you.’”

The backdrop, he said, is “the wickedly fierce competition between Mormons and Southern evangelicals to convert people.”

The world is globalizing, nuclear weapons are proliferating, the Middle East is seething, but Republicans are still arguing the Scopes trial.

Mitt was right when he said that “Americans do not respect believers of convenience.” Now if he would only admit he’s describing himself.

Dowd is quoting Jon Krakaur, author of Under the Banner of Heaven. It should be noted that Dowd is, or at least was raised as, a Roman Catholic. We do need to note that insight about the Mormons and the evangelicals being in serious competition for converts.

Understanding the State of the Nation:

While most of us interesed in things beyond on-line gaming, gambling and porn are focused on Iraq, Iran, and whether Hillary or Obama will come through the longest pre-election electoral process in tact, the real state of the nation can be better understood by what is happening in the world of high finance. Want to know what's really driving the nation? Check out ANDREW ROSS SORKIN and CLIFFORD KRAUSS's article, "At $45 Billion, New Contender for Top Buyout," in today's New York Times.

Sorkin and Krauss cover it all, from leveraged buyouts to energy and global warming. It's all here, and if you think about it, this speaks to taxes and the state of social security. A few people have an awful lot of money, and they are driving everyone's agenda.